The Growing Threat of Natural Disasters: Lack of Consensus in Climate Conferences

Vikas Shishodia
Researcher, Environment & Journalism
The continuous rise in global temperatures is increasing the intensity and frequency of natural disasters. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the average atmospheric temperature this year has risen by 1.54 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Efforts to combat this issue of climate change have been underway since 1996 through United Nations climate conventions. In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations agreed to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, despite warnings from experts, effective control over greenhouse gas emissions has not been implemented. If this trend continues, temperatures will surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2028, exacerbating disasters like droughts, floods, and storms.
The impact of this climate crisis is evident across the globe. Uncontrolled exploitation of nature and its resources by humans has disrupted the environmental balance, resulting in frequent natural disasters. The recent floods in the desert city of Mecca serve as proof of this disruption. Estimates suggest that in the next 25 years, climate change will cause significant economic losses for almost all nations worldwide. This crisis will not be limited to poorer countries but will also affect developed nations like Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Prioritizing economic growth while neglecting environmental balance could have severe consequences. If immediate corrective measures are not taken, the global economy could suffer losses of up to 60% by the year 2100.
Given the rapid pace of temperature rise, scientists predict that if it is not controlled, the temperature could reach 60 degrees Celsius in the next century. Even if the rise reaches just 3.6 degrees Celsius, massive ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctica will melt, leading to rising sea levels and severely disrupting global ecological balance. Ice at both the North and South Poles is already melting rapidly, yet adequate steps to address this serious issue are still lacking.

Recent Climate Agreements and Their Effectiveness
At the recently concluded United Nations Climate Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, two major agreements were reached. The first was related to the Carbon Credit Scheme, which had been pending for the past ten years, and the second concerned financial assistance to combat climate change. However, despite the ambitious commitments and agreements made annually in these climate conferences, the continued rise in temperature suggests that either the efforts made so far are insufficient or they are not being effectively implemented.
Instead of taking concrete and immediate action to prevent climate change, nations engage in endless negotiations every year, while environmentally damaging activities continue unchecked. Nevertheless, it must be acknowledged that climate change has garnered more global consensus than any other issue. The development of clean and innovative technologies could play a crucial role in preventing climate-related destruction.
The costs of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear power are steadily declining, making it possible to develop energy-efficient vehicles and machinery. However, transitioning vehicles, factories, and power plants that rely on fossil fuels to clean energy-based systems will require substantial investments. No concrete solution has yet been found regarding the funding and feasibility of this transition. The Baku Conference proposed an annual financial aid package of $300 billion from 2035 onwards, but doubts remain about whether temperature rise can be controlled by then.